Although AI is likely to continue gobbling up market attention in 2026, some analysts see opportunity in big food stocks.
After a two-year “normalization” period, during which independent mom-and-pop shops clawed back some ground, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a recent report that fast-casual leaders are “best positioned to reaccelerate” as they pivot back to aggressive consolidation.
“With chains now redoubling their efforts on driving sales [through] value, menu innovation, [and] marketing, we’d expect large restaurant concepts to return to share gainer status,” Senatore wrote.
The rotation into non-tech stocks is already taking shape, and analysts note that three big food chains — Chipotle (CMG), Wingstop (WING), and Cava (CAVA) — may be top contenders for 2026 comebacks.
According to a 2025 BofA report, while consumer spending at restaurants has crept up, this growth has been driven by higher menu prices rather than transaction volume. Furthermore, while high-income consumers have increased their spending, lower-income households are trading down or reducing their number of trips to manage rising costs.
Still, Chipotle remains a primary contender for this recovery, even as it navigates a rocky 2025 that saw shares slide roughly 38% year to date.
Despite the near-term volatility, Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo remains confident in the chain’s 2026 outlook, citing a renewed focus on chicken to offset beef inflation and an accelerated equipment rollout that could see efficiency gains hit the bottom line a year ahead of schedule.
However, execution remains key. “Most initiatives will be tested in 2026,” Gargiulo warned. Forgoing the “slop bowl” for other menu items could be another hurdle if younger cohorts don’t bite.
Meanwhile, Wingstop is also eyeing its own 2026 resurgence despite macro pressures that saw its stock dip about 16% this year.
Gargiulo noted that while “broadening consumer softness” led to a late-2025 decline in same-store sales, the brand’s “Smart Kitchen” rollout — which aims to slash order wait times from 22 minutes to just 10 — is a potential game changer. By combining speed with a new marketing push, Wingstop is betting it can capture the delivery-first audience that has grown fatigued by rising costs.
Finally, Cava could serve as another high-momentum, albeit high-risk alternative. The Mediterranean chain’s stock has dropped nearly 48% year to date, proving it isn’t immune to the macro pressures plaguing the sector.
The concern for 2026 lies in “drag” on low- and middle-income consumers, as Gargiulo expects “choppiness to be even more elevated” for Cava given that 40% of its base is sensitive to the increasingly promotional environment.
Still, BofA’s Senatore maintained that these “fast-casual leaders” are structurally better equipped to take share than the fragmented independents they compete against.
While the retail gap may widen if restaurant demand slows, the “redoubling efforts” from this trio suggest that the most efficient operators are ready to fight for their spot at the top of the menu.
Francisco Velasquez is a Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on LinkedIn, X, and Instagram. Story tips? Email him at francisco.velasquez@yahooinc.com.
